81 Major Housing Markets Where Home Prices Are Falling: What the Latest Data Reveals About the U.S. Real Estate Correction
If you’re tracking the pulse of the U.S. housing market, here’s the headline you need to know: home prices are no longer rising everywhere. In fact, a growing number of major metro areas are now seeing year-over-year declines. According to exclusive data from ResiClub , based on the Zillow Home Value Index, 100 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets—exactly one-third—recorded falling home prices in April 2025 compared to the same month a year earlier.
This isn’t a crash. It’s a correction. And for B2B leaders in real estate tech, mortgage lending, construction, and property management, understanding where and why these declines are happening is critical for strategic planning.
Let’s break down the raw numbers, the geographic patterns, and what this means for your business.
The National Picture: Stalling, Not Crashing
First, the forest: U.S. home prices are up just +0.7% year-over-year between April 2024 and April 2025. That’s the same pace as April 2023—meaning the market has effectively been flat for two years. To put that in perspective, the recent low was -0.01% in August 2024. So prices aren’t falling at the national level, but they’re barely rising.
This stagnation is a stark contrast to the double-digit annual gains we saw during the pandemic boom. The market has shifted from “seller’s market frenzy” to “stalemate” as affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates (still hovering around 6.5% to 7%) keep buyers on the sidelines and sellers reluctant to lower prices.
But the national average masks a dramatic regional divergence. That’s where the real story lives.
The Rising Wave of Declining Markets
ResiClub’s data reveals a clear upward trend in the number of major metros where home prices are actually falling. Here’s the progression over the past 16 months:
- January 2025: 31 of the 300 largest markets (10%) had year-over-year declines.
- February 2025: 42 markets (14%) were falling.
- March 2025: 60 markets (20%) turned negative.
- April 2025: 80 markets (27%) dropped.
- May 2025: 96 markets (32%) posted declines.
- June 2025: 110 markets (36%) recorded losses—the peak so far.
- July 2025: 105 markets (35%) were down.
- August 2025: 109 markets (36%) declined.
- September 2025: 105 markets (35%) fell.
- October 2025: 105 markets (35%) dropped.
- November 2025: 98 markets (33%) declined.
- December 2025: 106 markets (35%) fell.
- January 2026: 100 markets (33%) recorded year-over-year losses.
The numbers peaked in June 2025 with 110 markets, then stabilized around 100 to 109 markets through the end of the year. That’s not a recovery—it’s a plateau. Roughly one in three major American housing markets is now experiencing falling home prices.
The 81 Markets Where Prices Are Falling Most
While the full list of 100+ declining markets includes many smaller metros, ResiClub identified 81 markets with the most notable year-over-year drops. These are the ones to watch if you’re in real estate, construction, or mortgage lending.
Sun Belt Markets Hit Hardest
The biggest declines are concentrated in once-red-hot Sun Belt markets that saw explosive growth during the pandemic. Here are the standouts:
Texas: The epicenter of the correction
- Austin-Round Rock: -6.4% year-over-year
- San Antonio-New Braunfels: -4.1%
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington: -3.2%
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land: -2.8%
Austin leads the nation in price declines. The city added over 400,000 residents between 2010 and 2020, but now it’s seeing an inventory glut as new construction catches up with demand.
Florida: Cooling from boiling
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers: -5.5%
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton: -4.8%
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: -3.9%
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: -3.1%
- Jacksonville: -2.5%
Florida’s insurance crisis is a major factor. Homeowners insurance premiums in Florida have doubled or tripled in two years, making homeownership unaffordable for many buyers.
Other Sun Belt declines:
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona: -4.2%
- Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nevada: -3.6%
- Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tennessee: -3.4%
- Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, North Carolina-South Carolina: -2.9%
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Georgia: -2.7%
- Raleigh-Cary, North Carolina: -2.6%
Rust Belt and Midwest: Holding Steady
In contrast, many Rust Belt and Midwest markets are still seeing modest price growth. Why? They didn’t experience the same pandemic-era run-ups.
Markets like:
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, New York: +4.1% year-over-year
- Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio: +3.8%
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: +3.5%
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois-Indiana-Wisconsin: +3.2%
- Columbus, Ohio: +2.9%
These markets benefit from relatively affordable housing stock and more stable local economies. They’re also seeing population growth from remote workers and retirees seeking lower costs.
West Coast: Mixed but mostly soft
The West Coast is a mixed bag:
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, California: -3.8% year-over-year
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, California: -2.9%
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington: -2.1%
- Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colorado: -3.3%
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Oregon-Washington: -2.4%
San Francisco’s decline is notable, given its status as a tech hub. The city has seen population losses since 2020, and high office vacancy rates (over 30%) are dragging down demand for housing.
Why Are Prices Falling? Four Key Drivers
Understanding the why is essential for B2B decision-makers. Here’s what’s driving the correction:
1. Mortgage Rates Are Sticking at 6.5-7%
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes from 2022-2023 have locked in a new normal for mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.87% in April 2025, according to Freddie Mac. That’s more than double the 3% rates we saw in 2021. Affordability has been crushed.
2. Inventory Has Finally Returned
During the pandemic, housing inventory hit record lows. But in 2024 and early 2025, inventory has been steadily rising. Nationally, active listings are up 12% year-over-year as of April 2025, per Realtor.com. More supply means less upward pressure on prices.
3. Pandemic Boom Towns Are Correcting
Markets like Austin, Phoenix, and Boise saw 30-50% price jumps in 2020-2022. Those gains were unsustainable. Now they’re giving back some of the excess. This is a normalization, not a crash.
4. Insurance Costs Are Spiking
In high-risk areas like Florida, California, and Texas, property insurance premiums are skyrocketing. In Florida, average annual premiums hit $6,000 in 2024, up from $1,900 in 2019. That’s adding $500 a month to the cost of homeownership, further squeezing buyers.
What This Means for B2B Leaders
If you work in real estate tech, construction, lending, or property management, here’s how to interpret these trends:
For Real Estate Technology Companies
- Focus on affordability tools: Products that help buyers calculate true costs (mortgage + insurance + taxes) are in demand.
- Inventory management software: With more listings coming online, real estate agents and brokerages need better tools to manage supply.
- Price intelligence platforms: As markets diverge, real-time data analytics becomes a competitive advantage.
For Mortgage Lenders
- Refinancing is dead: With rates at 6.5-7%, few homeowners will refinance. Focus on purchase originations, but be prepared for lower volume.
- Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) may see a comeback: As buyers seek lower initial rates, ARMs could capture more market share.
- Target stable markets: Lenders should double down on Midwest and Rust Belt metros where prices are still rising.
For Homebuilders and Contractors
- Shift to entry-level product: In declining markets, luxury homes are sitting. Build smaller, more affordable units to match demand.
- Pause speculative building in the Sun Belt: If you have inventory in Austin, Phoenix, or Tampa, consider slowing construction starts.
- Renovation demand is strong: With existing homeowners locked into low rates and unwilling to sell, remodeling and home improvement are booming.
For Property Managers
- Rents are softening in Sun Belt: As home prices fall, rents are also declining in many Florida and Texas metros. Adjust your pricing strategies.
- Multifamily demand remains steady: People priced out of buying will continue renting. Focus on markets with high renter demand.
The Outlook: What’s Next for Housing?
The data suggests the correction has stabilized—but hasn’t reversed. We’re stuck at roughly 100-110 declining markets per month, and that number hasn’t dropped below 98 since June 2025.
Key factors to watch:
- If mortgage rates fall below 6%: Demand would likely pick up, halting price declines.
- If rates rise above 8%: We could see another wave of markets turn negative.
- If insurance costs continue to rise: Florida, California, and Texas could see deeper corrections.
Key Takeaways for Your Business
- The correction is real but contained: One-third of major markets are declining, but two-thirds are still stable or rising.
- Geography matters more than ever: Don’t rely on national averages. Your strategy must be hyper-local.
- Affordability is the new watchword: Products and services that help buyers or builders manage costs will win.
- The “rebound” isn’t coming soon: This plateau could last another 12-18 months.
Final Thought
The housing market is no longer a rising tide lifting all boats. It’s a patchwork of winners and losers. For B2B leaders, the winners are the ones who can identify where demand remains strong (Midwest, Northeast) and where supply is outpacing demand (Sun Belt, West Coast).
Stay agile. Stay data-driven. And remember: corrections create opportunities for those who are prepared.
Data source: ResiClub analysis of Zillow Home Value Index, April 2026.